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傅莹:在动荡不安的世界中,坚守全球化的正确方向(中英文双语)




 

 

 


走进2018年,也就走进了21世纪第二个十年的最后阶段,当今世界正面临更多的动荡和不安。对于中国而言,我们不是在真空中追求自身的发展目标,而是需要总体和平的国际环境,需要能与世界其他国家开展更加广泛和全面的合作。

本文为中国全国人大外事委员会主任委员傅莹女士近日参加第五十四届慕尼黑安全会议期间发表在德国媒体上的文章,经作者授权盘古智库发布。


 

傅莹  第十二届全国人大常委会委员、全国人大外事委员会主任委员

 

 

 

 

走进2018年,也就走进了21世纪第二个十年的最后阶段,当今世界正面临更多的动荡和不安。

 

2017年,我先后在德国的慕尼黑、俄罗斯的索契、意大利的罗马出席多场论坛,明显感受到来自国际战略界的焦虑情绪。很多人都在探问:世界将发生什么?国际制度是否正在坍塌?人类是否要退回到壁垒割据的时代?

 

2018年是中国改革开放40周年。40年前,中国做出把党和国家的工作重心转移到经济建设上来、实行改革开放的历史性决策。当时的一个判断是,世界和平因素的增长超过战争因素的增长,后来邓小平将之概括为,“和平与发展是时代主题”。这个判断在今天依然适用。顺应经济全球化的大潮,中国逐渐成长为世界经济环流的重要枢纽。从中国的角度看,全球化需要完善,但是不可能走回头路。中国主张推动全球化朝着更加开放、包容、普惠、平衡、共赢的方向发展。

 

当前,世界安全的挑战也出现全球化趋势。极端主义和恐怖主义等共同威胁更加紧迫,网络安全、气候变化等诸多问题更加严峻,给世人带来新的安全担忧。但是,安全领域的全球治理严重滞后。大国仍未摆脱地缘政治争夺的惯性,有的甚至试图重回大国恶性竞争和排他性安全的老路。美国领导的西方世界,在冷战后试图以输出价值观和制度模式的办法改造世界,追求全球“西方化”,结果是旧的问题没有解决,更多新的问题被制造出来。

 

对于中国而言,我们不是在真空中追求自身的发展目标,而是需要总体和平的国际环境,需要能与世界其他国家开展更加广泛和全面的合作。


中国不赞成所谓的“制度竞争”

 

2017年10月召开的中共十九大确立了以习近平为核心的新的中央领导集体,把习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想作为中国发展的行动指南,确定了分“两步走”全面建成社会主义现代化强国的时间表、路线图:在2020年全面建成小康社会、实现第一个百年奋斗目标的基础上,再奋斗15年,在2035年基本实现社会主义现代化;从2035年到本世纪中叶,在基本实现现代化的基础上,再奋斗15年,把我国建成富强民主文明和谐美丽的社会主义现代化强国。

 

大会还明确了未来几年中国的经济政策方向,认为中国经济已由高速增长阶段转向高质量发展阶段,从总量扩张向结构优化转变。换句话说,过去需要解决的是“有没有的问题”,而现在是“好不好的问题”。这意味着我们关注的重点将不仅仅是经济领域,而是全面落实经济建设、政治建设、文化建设、社会建设、生态文明建设五位一体总体布局,把全面协调可持续作为深入贯彻落实科学发展观的基本要求。

 

中共十九大判断和平与发展仍是时代主题,但也指出世界面临的不稳定性不确定性突出,人类面临许多共同挑战。就像习近平主席2017年1月18日在瑞士日内瓦万国宫演讲中所指出:“世界好,中国才能好;中国好,世界才更好。”为此,新时代中国确立的外交目标包括推动构建新型国际关系,推动构建人类命运共同体,强调持久和平、普遍安全和共同繁荣。它既是对未来世界的期许,也是中国国内发展的必然诉求。

 

有人担心中国发展强大了,就会走上争霸的老路,对外输出自己的政治制度和意识形态,谋求争夺实现世界领导权,通过盘剥其他国家滋养自己的利益。外界希望了解的是,当中国说自己“走近世界舞台中央”,是否意味着准备取代美国在世界上发挥“领导作用”?当中国提出“中国智慧”“中国方案”,是否意味着要对外输出自己的发展模式?

 

我们清醒地认识到自身发展的道路还很长,也仍然艰苦,中国与美国之间还有着巨大的差距。例如,在科技创新、产品研发能力等方面,中国人还处于学习提高的阶段,还需要不断提升自我;中国的改革开放也还有很长的路要走,在相当长的时间内,中国必须聚焦国内的发展和法治建设,深化改革开放。中国确实需要在国际上发挥作用,不断为人类作出更大贡献,但这将是以力所能及的方式和符合自身理念的方式进行。

 

中国选项的出现给世界上那些既希望加快发展又希望保持自身独立性的国家和民族提供了全新选择。但这并不意味着中国要强加于人,输出模式和意识形态,我们不“输出”中国模式,也不会要求别国“复制”中国的做法。

 

国际安全需要世界各国的共同努力

 

在安全领域,美国及其同盟体系的排他性安全利益的追求难免会与非盟国的安全利益发生抵触。不属于任何同盟体系的国家之间如何处理安全分歧和矛盾也面临挑战,关键要看各方能否探讨出一些基本的共同原则,明确哪些言论和行为是可以接受的,哪些是不能接受的。

 

习近平主席在2014年的亚洲相互协作与信任措施第四次峰会上就提出,“我们应该积极倡导共同安全、综合安全、合作安全、可持续安全的亚洲安全观,创新安全理念,搭建地区安全合作新架构,努力走出一条共建、共享、共赢的亚洲安全之路。”

 

中国的主张是对时代前行潮流的回应。如果中美乃至欧洲和俄罗斯能开始探索政治、军事、领土与主权、和平解决争端、建立互信措施等诸多方面的基本原则,不仅有利于维护大国关系的总体稳定,也有利于寻找解决地区热点问题的具体方案。

 

中共十九大报告还明确了力争到2035年基本实现国防和军队现代化、到本世纪中叶把人民军队全面建成世界一流军队的目标。有人试图将这一目标解读为“确立全球霸权的时间表”,那是一种误读。中国的国防政策本质上是防御性的。

 

2015年发布的《中国的军事战略》白皮书明确了中国军队在新的历史时期所担负的主要任务和强军目标,包括:应对各种突发事件和军事威胁,有效维护国家领土、领空、领海主权和安全;坚决捍卫祖国统一;维护新型领域安全和利益;维护海外利益安全;保持战略威慑,组织核反击行动;参加地区和国际安全合作,维护地区和世界和平;加强反渗透、反分裂、反恐怖斗争,维护国家政治安全和社会稳定;担负抢险救灾、维护权益、安保警戒和支援国家经济社会建设等。

 

白皮书同时提出,“中国军队要加强海外利益攸关区的国际安全合作,维护海外利益安全”。随着国家利益的拓展,中国海外能源资源、战略通道安全和海外机构、人员、资产安全问题日益凸显。海外利益攸关区就是与海外利益存在客观密切联系起来的区域。需要说明的是,中国的海外利益攸关区不是排他性的,也不是对抗性的。中国不搞划分势力范围,不搞军事同盟和军事扩张,不会对外陷入所谓的“战略竞争”,将始终致力于基于相互尊重和互利共赢的国际安全合作。

 

中美间培育协调关系十分重要

 

美国仍试图习惯性地从传统地缘政治竞争的角度看待中国在全球事务中不断增强的作用,摆出同中国全方位“竞争”的姿态。2017年12月18日发布的特朗普政府首份美国国家安全战略报告中,有33处提及中国,并把中国定性为国际秩序的“修正主义者”,称“我们还面临竞争对手——俄罗斯和中国——寻求挑战美国实力、影响力和利益的威胁,试图侵蚀美国的安全和繁荣”。 2018年1月18日发布的美国国防战略报告则宣称美国要恢复军事竞争优势,以威慑俄罗斯和中国对美国和美国盟友的“挑战”。值得关注的是,这是否会成为一个转向“遏制”中国的政策声明。

 

随着中国经济、政治、科技、文化实力的增长,中美在一些领域不可避免地出现一定的竞争性,这也是全球自由市场经济的性质所决定的。但两个国家之间合作性大于竞争性,如果中美能够在良性、建设性和基于规则的竞争中,实现共同进步,将竞争转化为各自提升国内发展水平的动力和引领全球治理迈上新台阶的历史机遇,那将是两国人民之福、世界人民之福。

 

经过建交后近40年的发展,中美两国利益高度融合和交织。据中国海关统计,2017年中美贸易总值为3.95万亿元人民币(突破5800亿美元),同比增长15.2%,占中国进出口总值的 14.2%。在特朗普总统2017年11月访华期间,两国企业签署合作项目34个,总金额达2535亿美元,显示了双方的政治意愿和商业潜力。

 

为解决中美之间的贸易不平衡,中国主张采取做大“蛋糕”而非限制的办法。美方应放宽对华高技术产品出口管制、履行中国入世议定书第15条义务、公平对待中国企业赴美投资,慎用贸易救济措施。两国不应让“贸易战”损害企业的利益和人民的福祉。

 

特朗普总统执政以来,中美关系进入良性发展的轨道,双方有意愿努力妥善处理分歧,避免碰撞。但是两国面临的考验也是巨大的,需要培养更加稳定的协调和信任的习惯。

 

中国需要稳定的周边环境并处理好矛盾和分歧

 

中国周邻的亚洲地区安全形势复杂,其中最引人关注的是朝核问题,南海和东海的领土争端问题也存在升温的情况。

 

朝鲜半岛是国际安全中一个不幸的案例。60多年前的朝鲜战争结束以来,只有停战协议,而没有达成过和平协议。美军没有撤出半岛,美朝双方之间极不信任,任何双边或者多边外交谈判达成的协议都得不到全面执行。美国强调自身和同盟的安全,连年向朝鲜施加强大军事压力,主张加大制裁。而朝鲜为了终极自保,不惜威胁地区安全,不断试核射导,形成相互刺激、螺旋下降的恶性循环。外界普遍担忧,朝核问题还有和平解决的希望吗?

 

一个令人欣慰的动向是,韩国以举办平昌冬奥会和冬残奥会为契机,开启与朝鲜政府间的对话,朝鲜也做出了积极反应,南北重新缓和关系出现了新的机会。同时,美韩释放了不在今年二三月冬奥会期间举行联合军演的信号,为未来的对话协商开辟了通道,某种意义上,这也可以看作是初步实现中方一直在推动的“双暂停”方案。

 

在中方看来,制裁是必要的手段,中国全面履行了联合国安理会的制裁决议。但只有当和谈的大门打开时,制裁才能有效果,因此,中方一直坚持促进对话与谈判。

 

南海存在岛礁领土争议不是新问题,在上个世纪90年代中国与东盟国家改善关系的过程中,就围绕“搁置争议、共同开发”进行过细致的对话和谈判,达成基本共识,南海局势总体上一直保持平静。在很多中国人看来,美国是南海局势紧张的推手。美国推进“重返亚洲”战略,将中国视为主要针对目标。在南海问题上,美方选边站队,袒护其他争议方激化分歧的言论和行动,刺激中方对南海态势失衡的担心。

 

中方于2013年底在自己控守的岛礁上开始了扩建工程,这些岛礁都远离国际航道,不存在影响航行自由的问题。中国政府对南沙部分驻守岛礁进行了相关建设和设施维护,主要是为了完善岛礁的相关功能,改善驻守人员的工作和生活条件,更好地维护国家领土主权和海洋权益。

 

但是美国和菲律宾反应强烈并夸大事态,指责中国,其他一些周边国家也表达了担忧。当时的菲律宾政府没有遵循《联合国海洋法公约》关于启动程序前进行协商的义务,不与中国协商就诉诸国际仲裁,遭到中方的抵制。美国加大对南海事务的介入,派军舰抵近中国南沙、西沙岛礁和黄岩岛。中方不会放弃领土主权和相应的海域权益,也不会同意其他国家干预和介入中国与周边国家的争议。由于美国执意在南海挑起地缘政治竞争,中美间的分歧开始超越其他矛盾成为南海局势的主线。

 

目前,中国与东盟国家关于“南海行为准则”(COC)的谈判正在取得进展。中国没有旨在谋求所谓地区霸权的动机和设计,未来形势如何发展取决于各方的认识和选择。如果选择合作,可能是多赢;如果选择对抗,则可能是僵局甚至冲突,任何一方都难以从中完全获益。

 

世界上很多新的全球性挑战不能仅靠一个或者个别国家应对,亟待国际社会共同努力。中国期待在相互尊重和互利的基础上与世界各国建立牢固的、可以适应新形势的伙伴关系。这种伙伴关系将使双方能够更好地完成各自的国内目标,更有能力应对当今世界的诸多挑战。

 


 

China in Globalization

Fu Ying


As we enter 2018 and move towards the end of the second decade of the 21st century, the world is witnessing new instabilities and turbulent situations. Having attended forums in Munich, Sochi and Rome in late 2017, I could sense the anxieties among the international strategic circles. People were asking: What is happening in the world today? Is the current global system collapsing? Will mankind fall back onto confrontations and isolationism?


The 40th-year anniversary of China’s reform and opening up policies will be marked in 2018. Forty years ago, China took the historic decision to shift the focus of the Party and the country to make the economy grow. “Peace and development are the themes of the times”, as Deng Xiaoping later summed up. These are still the dominant themes today. China has been riding on the tide of economic globalization since and has become a hub and an important engine for the world economy. From China’s perspective, globalization needs to be improved, but to backtrack is unlikely. China is therefore calling for globalization to be made more open, inclusive, balanced and beneficial for all.


Nowadays, world security challenges are globalized. Common threats are widespread, including extremism, terrorism and cyber security challenges. But major countries find it hard to rid themselves of the geopolitical tug of war and are returning to competitive and exclusive security approaches, making it harder to create effective global security cooperation. The US-led Western world has attempted to achieve a westernization of the world by exporting its own values and model. However, those attempts have not only failed to address old problems but have created new ones.


China is not pursuing its development goals in a vacuum. We need a peaceful international environment. We need to engage in more extensive and comprehensive cooperation with the rest of the world. As President Xi Jinping said in his speech delivered at the Geneva Palais des Nations on 18 January, 2017: “China will do well only when the world does well, and vice versa.”


The 19th CPC National Congress established China’s new central leadership with President Xi at its core, and “The Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era” was adopted as the guide to China’s development. It mapped out the objective of completing the building of a moderately prosperous society in all respects by 2020 and turning China into a great modern socialist country in two steps by 2050. It also charted the course for China’s economic policy over the next couple of years. China’s economy has been going through a transition from a phase of rapid growth to one of quality development. Put more simply, our concern before was about whether there is enough and now it is about whether it is good enough. Therefore, our focus of attention also needs to be changed and the emphasis will be given to more coordinated and comprehensive development, paying attention not only to economy but also to political, cultural and social progress as well as to improving eco-environment.


The Party Congress reiterated that peace and development remain the call of our day, while admitting that the world faces growing uncertainties and destabilizing factors. In this context, China's diplomatic goals in the new era include promoting the creation of a new type of international relations, giving more prominence to lasting peace, universal security and common prosperity, and calling for the building of a community with a shared future for mankind. These are not only our expectations of the world’s future, but also a necessity for our domestic development.


Some might worry that as China becomes stronger, it will embark on the traditional path of seeking hegemony, exporting its political system and ideology. The outside world wants to understand what China means when it says it "moves closer to center stage.” Does it mean that the country is prepared to replace the United States and play a "leading role" in the world? When China offers "Chinese wisdom and a Chinese approach", is that tantamount to China exporting its development model?


We are keenly aware of the long and arduous path ahead of us in our domestic development, aware also of the huge gap between China and the United States. We are still in the stage of learning and growing. There is a lot we need to improve and in areas like technological innovation and product research and development. We want to play a role in world affairs and make an even greater contribution to mankind. But it must be done within our means and in a manner that is consistent with our values.


China has offered a new option to countries and nations that want rapid development while keeping their independence. But this does not mean that the Chinese model and ideology are to be exported. The success of China proves that there are alternative options to those proposed by the West. China is not interested in the so-called "competition of systems."


In the realm of security, the pursuit of exclusive security by the United States and its alliance will unavoidably clash with the security interests of countries outside their alignment. Additionally, countries not belonging to any alliance are also facing challenges in the handling of security differences between them. It is therefore important that all countries work together to set out some basic common principles.


In 2014, President Xi proposed, "we should actively advocate a common, comprehensive, cooperative and sustainable security strategy for Asia. We need to innovate in our security concept, establish a new regional security cooperation architecture and jointly build a shared, win-win road for Asian security."


What China is advocating is in response to the call of the times. If China and the United States, or even better, with Europe and Russia as well as other countries, can begin exploring the basic principles of major dispute resolution, it will not only help in maintaining the overall stability in relations between the major powers, but will also facilitate the resolution of hot-spot regional issues.


The 19th CPC National Congress report has stated that “we will make it our mission to see that by 2035, the modernization of our national defense and our forces is basically completed; and that by the mid-21st century our people’s armed forces have been fully transformed into world-class forces.” Some have rushed to interpret this mission as “setting a timetable for achieving global hegemony,” ignoring the fact that China has always pursued a national defense policy that is defensive in nature.


The White Paper on China’s military strategy published in 2015 explicitly identified the strategic tasks shouldered by China’s military: to deal with a wide range of emergencies and military threats, and effectively safeguard the sovereignty and security of China’s territorial land, air and sea; to resolutely safeguard the unification of the motherland; to safeguard China’s security and interests in new domains; to safeguard the security of China’s overseas interests; to maintain strategic deterrence and carry out nuclear counterattack; to participate in regional and international security cooperation and maintain regional and world peace; to strengthen efforts in operations against infiltration, separatism and terrorism so as to maintain China’s political security and social stability; and to perform such tasks as emergency rescue and disaster relief, rights and interests protection, domestic safety, and support for national economic and social development.


The white paper also pointed out that “the armed forces will actively participate in both regional and international security cooperation and safeguard overseas interests.” However, China’s approach regarding its overseas interests is not exclusionary or confrontational. China has vowed never to pursue hegemony nor seek spheres of influence, military alliances or expansion. China will not fall into the trap of the so-called “strategic competition” with other powers. We will remain committed to international security cooperation based on mutual respect and common interest.


The security situation in China’s Asian neighborhood is quite complicated. The most serious challenge is currently the North Korean nuclear issue. The tensions over territorial disputes in the South China Sea and East China Sea are also not quieting down.


The Korean nuclear issue is a most unfortunate case. For over 60 years following the ceasefire in the Korean War, there has only been a truce agreement, as no peace deal has been agreed and the US troops have stayed on the Peninsula. Deep distrust makes it impossible for any bilateral or multilateral agreement on the nuclear issue to be fully implemented. The US, emphasizing its own security and its allies’ safety, has exerted mounting military pressure and calls for continued sanctions, while North Korea, hoping to achieve ultimate safety, has speeded up its nuclear and missile tests, resulting in a vicious circle of action and reaction. Is there any hope for a peaceful solution to the North Korean nuclear issue?


In an encouraging sign, an opportunity for easing tension between South and North Korea has emerged as South Korea has capitalized on the Pyeongchang Winter Olympics to open dialogues with the North which responded positively. The fact that the US and South Korea have agreed to delay their regular joint military exercises during the Winter Games in February and March has paved the way for future talks and consultations. This can be seen in part as an early-stage implementation of the “suspension for suspension” idea, which China has been promoting – suspension of nuclear and missile tests and suspension of military maneuvers.


While China believes that sanctions are necessary and has fully complied with the UN Security Council resolutions concerning sanctions on North Korea, we also hold that sanctions only work when the door for negotiation is open. For this reason, China has made painstaking efforts to promote dialogues and negotiations.


China-US coordination is essential. Since President Trump took office, the relationship between China and the US has been smooth, with the two countries demonstrating a willingness to tackle bilateral issues and avoid a collision. But apart from their differences over trade, they are deeply divided over the South China Sea.


Territorial disputes over islands and shoals in the South China Sea are not new. In the process of warming up relations in the 1990s, China and the ASEAN countries reached basic agreement on shelving disputes and pursuing joint development through dialogue and negotiations. But in 2010, the US adopted the strategy of “Pivot to Asia,” making China its target. The fact that the US is taking sides and condoning the provocative rhetoric and moves of others has only intensified China’s concern over the South China Sea issue.


China commenced reclamation projects around the Nansha or Spratley Islands at the end of 2013. The islands, which are under the control of China, are far away from international navigation routes and therefore posed no restriction on the freedom of international navigation. Maintenance and construction work on some of the garrisoned islands and reefs had only the purpose: optimizing functions, improving the living and working conditions of personnel stationed there and better safeguarding China’s territorial sovereignty, maritime rights and interests,lifting the ability to better provide public goods like search and rescue and marine research.


The US and the Philippines reacted strongly and criticized China. Some other countries in the area also expressed concerns. The Philippines even brought an arbitration case without prior consulting China, as was required according to the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. The case was rejected by China. The US also stepped up its intervention, sending ships to sail near the Chinese islands and Shoals. Yet China will not give up its territorial sovereignty and corresponding maritime rights, nor will it condone other parties who intervene in disputes between China and its neighbors. The differences between China and the US regarding these disputes have the potential to become the major point of tension in the South China Sea.


Currently, progress is being made in negotiations on the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea (COC) between China and ASEAN countries. China does not have an agenda or motive to seek hegemony in the region. The future development is in the hands of the parties involved, where the choice of cooperation may lead to a “multi-win” outcome and to choose confrontation or even to conflicts would let everyone lose.


The US tends to view China’s growing role in global affairs from the angle of geopolitical competition, identifying China as a “strategic competitor.” The Trump Administration’s first “National Security Strategy (NSS)” mentioned China 33 times, labeling it as a “revisionist” power to the international order and claiming that “China and Russia challenge American power, influence and interests, attempting to erode American security and prosperity.” The “US Defense Strategy” document subsequently released on January 18, 2018, declares that the US will restore America's competitive military advantage to deter Russia and China from “challenging” the United States and its allies. It would be a major concern should this turn out to be a declaration of containing China.


With China’s strength growing in economics, science and technology, it is inevitable for competition between China and the US to increase, as competition is also the nature of the world’s liberal market. But it is also true that our relationship is more cooperative than competitive. It would benefit everyone if China and the US could achieve common progress through healthy, constructive and rule-based competition that drives development.


China and the US are now highly interdependent and our interests are intertwined as a result of over 40 years’ of development following the normalization of bilateral relations. According to China Customs, the trade volume between China and the US in 2017 was over US$580 billion, representing a yearly increase of 15.2 percent and accounting for 14.2 percent of China’s total foreign trade. When President Trump was visiting China in November 2017, Chinese and US companies signed deals on 34 cooperation projects worth US$ 253.5 billion. This is a demonstration of political will and the strong business potential between the two countries.


The Chinese approach to addressing the trade imbalance with the US is to make the “cake” bigger instead of imposing restrictions. The US should relax its export controls and promote exports of high-tech products to China, fulfilling its obligations under Article 15 of the Protocol on China's Accession to the WTO. It should also treat investment by Chinese companies in the US fairly, and use trade remedy measures with caution. The two countries should not allow a trade war to compromise the corporate interests and the peoples wellbeing.


Many of the new global challenges cannot be effectively tackled by one country alone and it is imperative for the international community to join efforts. China hopes to establish a solid partnership based on mutual respect and shared interest with the US, which adapts to the ever changing reality. Such a partnership will enable both sides to achieve their domestic objectives better while coping with the challenges of today’s world.


 

(Fu Ying is Chairperson of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the National People’s Congress of China)


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